NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season 2015 forecast update agrees with earlier forecasts of a season with fewer named storms than historical averages in 2015.
NOAA, which released its final forecast update of the season Thursday, calls for a 90 percent likelihood of:
- 6-10 named storms (including three tropical storms that formed earlier in the season: Ana, Bill, and Claudette)
- 1-4 of which would become hurricanes
- 0-1 of which would become major hurricanes – those of at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
This is below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
NOAA noted the modern-era record low number of Atlantic hurricanes in any season is two in 2013 and 1982.
Does this mean a less destructive season?
The 2014 season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years (eight storms), but also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane in the mainland U.S. in six years (Hurricane Arthur on the Outer Banks), and featured two back-to-back hurricane hits on the tiny archipelago of Bermuda (Fay, then Gonzalo).
Furthermore, six of those eight storms became hurricanes, and Gonzalo was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Igor in 2010.
The 2010 season featured 12 hurricanes and 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most named storms in any Atlantic season, at the time. But not a single hurricane, and only one tropical storm, made landfall in the U.S during that active season.
In other words, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact.
Therefore, it’s important to be prepared for hurricanes and tropical storms every year, regardless of seasonal forecasts.
Here’s a guide from NOAA you can download
(Source: Weather.com & NOAA)
